Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.1320

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 126.00

Expected value

¥ 93.20

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

50.0%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 33.20

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
AK-47 \| Case Hardened	The Arms Deal Collection	50.0%	0.132000	MW	¥ 93.60	−26%	¥ 46.80
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic	The Arms Deal Collection	50.0%	0.010560	FN	¥ 92.80	−26%	¥ 46.40

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

AK-47 | Case Hardened

The Arms Deal Collection

50.0%

0.132000

¥ 93.60

−26%

¥ 46.80

Desert Eagle | Hypnotic

The Arms Deal Collection

50.0%

0.010560

¥ 92.80

−26%

¥ 46.40