Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.2000

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 117.00

Expected value

¥ 90.80

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

50.0%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 26.60

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
Tec-9 \| Remote Control	The 2018 Nuke Collection	50.0%	0.200000	FT	¥ 91.20	−22%	¥ 45.60
M4A1-S \| Control Panel	The 2018 Nuke Collection	50.0%	0.200000	FT	¥ 90.40	−23%	¥ 45.20

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

Tec-9 | Remote Control

The 2018 Nuke Collection

50.0%

0.200000

¥ 91.20

−22%

¥ 45.60

M4A1-S | Control Panel

The 2018 Nuke Collection

50.0%

0.200000

¥ 90.40

−23%

¥ 45.20