Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.2080

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 114.00

Expected value

¥ 78.40

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

50.0%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 52.40

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox	The 2021 Mirage Collection	50.0%	0.166400	FT	¥ 95.20	−16%	¥ 47.60
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis	The 2021 Mirage Collection	50.0%	0.114400	MW	¥ 61.60	−46%	¥ 30.80

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

The 2021 Mirage Collection

50.0%

0.166400

¥ 95.20

−16%

¥ 47.60

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

The 2021 Mirage Collection

50.0%

0.114400

¥ 61.60

−46%

¥ 30.80