Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.0160

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 120.00

Expected value

¥ 86.80

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

25.0%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 42.40

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
Nova \| Bloomstick	The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	25.0%	0.071840	MW	¥ 94.40	−21%	¥ 23.60
AUG \| Bengal Tiger	The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	25.0%	0.071840	MW	¥ 91.20	−24%	¥ 22.80
AWP \| Corticera	The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	25.0%	0.063840	FN	¥ 84.00	−30%	¥ 21.00
P2000 \| Corticera	The eSports 2014 Summer Collection	25.0%	0.063840	FN	¥ 77.60	−35%	¥ 19.40

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

Nova | Bloomstick

The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

25.0%

0.071840

¥ 94.40

−21%

¥ 23.60

AUG | Bengal Tiger

The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

25.0%

0.071840

¥ 91.20

−24%

¥ 22.80

AWP | Corticera

The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

25.0%

0.063840

¥ 84.00

−30%

¥ 21.00

P2000 | Corticera

The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

25.0%

0.063840

¥ 77.60

−35%

¥ 19.40