Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.0660

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 117.00

Expected value

¥ 79.73

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 51.40

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac	The Vanguard Collection	33.3%	0.066000	FN	¥ 88.80	−24%	¥ 29.60
P250 \| Cartel	The Vanguard Collection	33.3%	0.049500	FN	¥ 84.80	−28%	¥ 28.27
XM1014 \| Tranquility	The Vanguard Collection	33.3%	0.033000	FN	¥ 65.60	−44%	¥ 21.87

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

SCAR-20 | Cardiac

The Vanguard Collection

33.3%

0.066000

¥ 88.80

−24%

¥ 29.60

P250 | Cartel

The Vanguard Collection

33.3%

0.049500

¥ 84.80

−28%

¥ 28.27

XM1014 | Tranquility

The Vanguard Collection

33.3%

0.033000

¥ 65.60

−44%

¥ 21.87