Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.0800

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 117.00

Expected value

¥ 91.20

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 29.00

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play	The Breakout Collection	33.3%	0.080000	MW	¥ 94.40	−19%	¥ 31.47
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental	The Breakout Collection	33.3%	0.056000	FN	¥ 91.20	−22%	¥ 30.40
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy	The Breakout Collection	33.3%	0.024000	FN	¥ 88.00	−25%	¥ 29.33

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

The Breakout Collection

33.3%

0.080000

¥ 94.40

−19%

¥ 31.47

Glock-18 | Water Elemental

The Breakout Collection

33.3%

0.056000

¥ 91.20

−22%

¥ 30.40

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

The Breakout Collection

33.3%

0.024000

¥ 88.00

−25%

¥ 29.33