Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.1500

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 112.50

Expected value

¥ 89.87

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 28.50

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
AK-47 \| The Outsiders	The Gallery Collection	33.3%	0.135000	MW	¥ 98.40	−13%	¥ 32.80
P250 \| Epicenter	The Gallery Collection	33.3%	0.120000	MW	¥ 87.20	−22%	¥ 29.07
UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir	The Gallery Collection	33.3%	0.150000	MW	¥ 84.00	−25%	¥ 28.00

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

AK-47 | The Outsiders

The Gallery Collection

33.3%

0.135000

¥ 98.40

−13%

¥ 32.80

P250 | Epicenter

The Gallery Collection

33.3%

0.120000

¥ 87.20

−22%

¥ 29.07

UMP-45 | Neo-Noir

The Gallery Collection

33.3%

0.150000

¥ 84.00

−25%

¥ 28.00