Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.1400

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 114.00

Expected value

¥ 80.53

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 50.80

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled	The Recoil Collection	33.3%	0.107800	MW	¥ 97.60	−14%	¥ 32.53
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love	The Recoil Collection	33.3%	0.140000	MW	¥ 80.80	−29%	¥ 26.93
P250 \| Visions	The Recoil Collection	33.3%	0.098000	MW	¥ 63.20	−45%	¥ 21.07

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

AK-47 | Ice Coaled

The Recoil Collection

33.3%

0.107800

¥ 97.60

−14%

¥ 32.53

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love

The Recoil Collection

33.3%

0.140000

¥ 80.80

−29%

¥ 26.93

P250 | Visions

The Recoil Collection

33.3%

0.098000

¥ 63.20

−45%

¥ 21.07