Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.1000

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 115.50

Expected value

¥ 80.00

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

25.0%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 52.30

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy	The Huntsman Collection	25.0%	0.090000	MW	¥ 91.20	−21%	¥ 22.80
USP-S \| Orion	The Huntsman Collection	25.0%	0.050000	FN	¥ 85.60	−26%	¥ 21.40
SCAR-20 \| Cyrex	The Huntsman Collection	25.0%	0.050000	FN	¥ 80.00	−31%	¥ 20.00
USP-S \| Caiman	The Huntsman Collection	25.0%	0.040000	FN	¥ 63.20	−45%	¥ 15.80

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy

The Huntsman Collection

25.0%

0.090000

¥ 91.20

−21%

¥ 22.80

USP-S | Orion

The Huntsman Collection

25.0%

0.050000

¥ 85.60

−26%

¥ 21.40

SCAR-20 | Cyrex

The Huntsman Collection

25.0%

0.050000

¥ 80.00

−31%

¥ 20.00

USP-S | Caiman

The Huntsman Collection

25.0%

0.040000

¥ 63.20

−45%

¥ 15.80