Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.1200

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 115.50

Expected value

¥ 80.27

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 44.30

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack	The Operation Riptide Collection	33.3%	0.120000	MW	¥ 92.80	−20%	¥ 30.93
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek	The Operation Riptide Collection	33.3%	0.072000	MW	¥ 76.80	−34%	¥ 25.60
MAC-10 \| Toybox	The Operation Riptide Collection	33.3%	0.120000	MW	¥ 71.20	−38%	¥ 23.73

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

Glock-18 | Snack Attack

The Operation Riptide Collection

33.3%

0.120000

¥ 92.80

−20%

¥ 30.93

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek

The Operation Riptide Collection

33.3%

0.072000

¥ 76.80

−34%

¥ 25.60

MAC-10 | Toybox

The Operation Riptide Collection

33.3%

0.120000

¥ 71.20

−38%

¥ 23.73