Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.1800

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 121.50

Expected value

¥ 87.20

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 50.30

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
UMP-45 \| Momentum	The Danger Zone Collection	33.3%	0.090000	MW	¥ 98.40	−19%	¥ 32.80
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries	The Danger Zone Collection	33.3%	0.108000	MW	¥ 92.00	−24%	¥ 30.67
MP5-SD \| Phosphor	The Danger Zone Collection	33.3%	0.144000	MW	¥ 71.20	−41%	¥ 23.73

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

UMP-45 | Momentum

The Danger Zone Collection

33.3%

0.090000

¥ 98.40

−19%

¥ 32.80

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries

The Danger Zone Collection

33.3%

0.108000

¥ 92.00

−24%

¥ 30.67

MP5-SD | Phosphor

The Danger Zone Collection

33.3%

0.144000

¥ 71.20

−41%

¥ 23.73