Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.2000

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 115.50

Expected value

¥ 81.07

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 45.10

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
M4A1-S \| Nightmare	The Horizon Collection	33.3%	0.200000	FT	¥ 90.40	−22%	¥ 30.13
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena	The Horizon Collection	33.3%	0.140000	MW	¥ 82.40	−29%	¥ 27.47
Sawed-Off \| Devourer	The Horizon Collection	33.3%	0.160000	FT	¥ 70.40	−39%	¥ 23.47

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

M4A1-S | Nightmare

The Horizon Collection

33.3%

0.200000

¥ 90.40

−22%

¥ 30.13

FAMAS | Eye of Athena

The Horizon Collection

33.3%

0.140000

¥ 82.40

−29%

¥ 27.47

Sawed-Off | Devourer

The Horizon Collection

33.3%

0.160000

¥ 70.40

−39%

¥ 23.47