Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.0760

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 133.50

Expected value

¥ 94.67

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 47.90

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
AK-47 \| Redline	The Phoenix Collection	33.3%	0.145600	MW	¥ 100.00	−25%	¥ 33.33
P90 \| Trigon	The Phoenix Collection	33.3%	0.130920	MW	¥ 98.40	−26%	¥ 32.80
Nova \| Antique	The Phoenix Collection	33.3%	0.022800	FN	¥ 85.60	−36%	¥ 28.53

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

AK-47 | Redline

The Phoenix Collection

33.3%

0.145600

¥ 100.00

−25%

¥ 33.33

P90 | Trigon

The Phoenix Collection

33.3%

0.130920

¥ 98.40

−26%

¥ 32.80

Nova | Antique

The Phoenix Collection

33.3%

0.022800

¥ 85.60

−36%

¥ 28.53