Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.2000

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 118.50

Expected value

¥ 79.73

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 53.70

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon	The Gamma Collection	33.3%	0.126000	MW	¥ 97.60	−18%	¥ 32.53
M4A4 \| Desolate Space	The Gamma Collection	33.3%	0.200000	FT	¥ 76.80	−35%	¥ 25.60
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport	The Gamma Collection	33.3%	0.090000	MW	¥ 64.80	−45%	¥ 21.60

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

P2000 | Imperial Dragon

The Gamma Collection

33.3%

0.126000

¥ 97.60

−18%

¥ 32.53

M4A4 | Desolate Space

The Gamma Collection

33.3%

0.200000

¥ 76.80

−35%

¥ 25.60

SCAR-20 | Bloodsport

The Gamma Collection

33.3%

0.090000

¥ 64.80

−45%

¥ 21.60