Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.2000

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 117.00

Expected value

¥ 85.60

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 49.80

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
Nova \| Hyper Beast	The Wildfire Collection	33.3%	0.120000	MW	¥ 100.00	−15%	¥ 33.33
AWP \| Elite Build	The Wildfire Collection	33.3%	0.200000	FT	¥ 89.60	−23%	¥ 29.87
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon	The Wildfire Collection	33.3%	0.152000	FT	¥ 67.20	−43%	¥ 22.40

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

Nova | Hyper Beast

The Wildfire Collection

33.3%

0.120000

¥ 100.00

−15%

¥ 33.33

AWP | Elite Build

The Wildfire Collection

33.3%

0.200000

¥ 89.60

−23%

¥ 29.87

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon

The Wildfire Collection

33.3%

0.152000

¥ 67.20

−43%

¥ 22.40