Trade-Up Calculator Deterministic math · official formulas

Classic contract · 10 Restricted (purple) → Classified (pink)prices are demo data

Materials (10 · same rarity)

Wear tier:

0.0800

Output wear = output range mapping (official formula) · cross-collection mixing supported (output odds by material share)

Material cost

¥ 118.50

Expected value

¥ 81.87

Break-even

0.0%

Near break-even

output value ≥ 90% of cost

0.0%

Jackpot rate

odds of the priciest output

33.3%

Worst-case profit

max loss

¥ 45.70

Buy the material bundle（10 items）

Bundle pricing: cheapest legal materials per collection × 10

We deliver the materials to your Steam inventory; sign the trade-up contract in game to finish.

Trade-Up Simulator Official odds · local draw

Draws one outcome by its probability; output wear is deterministic from the official formula, paint seed is 1–1000 random.

Simulation may deviate from the in-game contract result.

Outcome projection

Probability total 1.00 (below 1 = inputs include collections outside the candidate pool)

Output	Collection	Odds	Output wear	Tier	Value	ROI	EV share
M4A1-S \| Guardian	The Winter Offensive Collection	33.3%	0.040000	FN	¥ 93.60	−21%	¥ 31.20
P250 \| Mehndi	The Winter Offensive Collection	33.3%	0.080000	MW	¥ 79.20	−33%	¥ 26.40
AWP \| Redline	The Winter Offensive Collection	33.3%	0.124000	MW	¥ 72.80	−39%	¥ 24.27

…

Output

Collection

Odds

Output wear

Tier

Value

ROI

EV share

M4A1-S | Guardian

The Winter Offensive Collection

33.3%

0.040000

¥ 93.60

−21%

¥ 31.20

P250 | Mehndi

The Winter Offensive Collection

33.3%

0.080000

¥ 79.20

−33%

¥ 26.40

AWP | Redline

The Winter Offensive Collection

33.3%

0.124000

¥ 72.80

−39%

¥ 24.27